Current Price Action
As of July 29, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ) show mild bearish pressure on intraday charts:
- 1-Hour Chart: Closed at 23,470 (-0.14%), testing support near 23,460–23,470. The RSI at 34.34 signals oversold conditions.
- 15-Minute Chart: Traded flat (-0.02%) with RSI at 32.21, reinforcing short-term exhaustion in selling momentum.
The charts reveal a consolidation phase after a rally to all-time highs earlier in July. Key technical observations:
- Support Zone: 23,460–23,470 is critical. A break below could target 23,400.
- Resistance: 23,500–23,520 (yesterday’s high) caps upside moves.
- RSI Divergence: Oversold readings on both timeframes hint at a potential near-term bounce.
Where Is Price Headed Next?
Short-Term (1-3 Days):
- Expect a technical rebound toward 23,500–23,520 if support holds. The oversold RSI and tight trading range suggest buyers may step in.
- A close above 23,520 opens the path to retest July highs near 23,600.
Risk Scenario:
Failure to hold 23,460 could trigger a slide to 23,400. However, the lack of strong bearish volume suggests downside is limited.
Economic Headwinds: Tariffs and Growth Concerns
Recent economic updates add complexity:
- Tariff Impacts:
- New U.S. tariffs (effective July 27) now average 18.2%—the highest since 1934 (Yale Budget Lab, July 28).
- These tariffs could reduce 2025 GDP growth by 0.5% and raise inflation, per Yale’s model.
- GDP Contraction:
- Q1 2025 GDP shrunk by 0.5% (BEA, June 26).
- Q2 data (due July 30) is forecasted at +3%, but tariff-driven import surges may distort results (CBS News).
- Federal Reserve Policy:
- Rates are likely to hold at 4.25–4.50% until September. The Fed seeks “clearer signs of labor market weakening” before cutting (EY).
- Corporate Vulnerability:
- EY notes the economy relies on a “narrow base” of high-income consumers and large firms—making growth “fragile.”
Trading Strategy for Beginners
- Entry: Consider long positions near 23,460 with tight stops below 23,450. Target 23,500–23,520.
- Confirmation Needed: A break above 23,520 with rising volume validates bullish momentum.
- Risks: Avoid aggressive bets if Q2 GDP (July 30) misses estimates or tariff retaliation escalates.
The Bigger Picture
While tech stocks remain resilient, the Nasdaq faces dual pressures: short-term profit-taking and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. A decisive close above 23,600 would signal renewed bullish conviction. Until then, patience and tight risk management are key.
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